IBM has unveiled its comprehensive roadmap to build the first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer—dubbed Quantum Starling—by 2029 at its Poughkeepsie, New York, data center. This system will feature 200 logical qubits capable of executing over 100 million quantum operations, thanks to advanced qLDPC error‑correction codes and new real-time decoders.
Jay Gambetta, IBM’s VP of Quantum, stated, “I feel more comfortable than ever that a fault‑tolerant quantum computer will exist before the end of this decade.” Industry analysts like IEEE Spectrum confirm that IBM has “cracked quantum error correction,” shifting the challenge from science to engineering.
Meanwhile, Google’s Craig Gidney warns that quantum computers may be closer to breaking today’s encryption than previously thought. His research suggests that elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC), which secures Bitcoin, could be at risk by around 2030—far sooner than expected. He estimates that a quantum machine with fewer than one million noisy qubits could crack RSA‑2048 in under a week.
But not all experts agree on the timeline. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes quantum‑resilient Bitcoin remains at least 20 years away, though he acknowledges that migrating crypto holdings to quantum‑safe addresses may become necessary. Meanwhile, David Carvalho of Naoris Protocol cautions that powerful quantum hardware—like upcoming systems from Microsoft—could threaten Bitcoin within just five years, putting around one-third of all BTC in vulnerable wallets at risk .
Bitcoin whales are preparing for the quantum risks ahead. Once fault-tolerant machines arrive, crypto will need an urgent upgrade to quantum-safe addresses. Ready or not.
— CryptoSecure (@CryptoSecure) June 14, 2025
Investors have noticed: IBM shares continued a rally, reaching record highs above $275 following the announcement. The company’s expansive strategy includes $30 billion in quantum R&D as part of a wider $150 billion U.S. investment plan, signaling confidence in quantum’s long-term potential.
What this means for Bitcoin: A decade-long deadline to adopt quantum-resistant cryptography seems increasingly urgent. Best practices include preparing to migrate funds to quantum-safe wallets, exploring post-quantum signature schemes, and initiating protocol upgrades before threats become imminent.
For wider context on how IBM is leading the charge—and what it means for crypto security—check out The Wall Street Journal and IBM’s official quantum roadmap.